How much capital belongs in equities?
Explore the assumptions, risks, and alternatives behind an allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash — rather than treating a market decline as an automatic buy signal.
An independent, free research project
Think like an owner.
Allocate with
discipline.
Capital Allocation Lab is being built to support long-term investment research: understanding businesses, comparing alternatives, and documenting how capital is allocated over time.
Built for personal research. Shared openly. No paid subscriptions.
PROJECT STATUS
Project introduction is live. Research tools are planned, not yet available.
01 / THE APPROACH
Three questions.
One disciplined process.
Long-term investing begins with understanding what you own, what you pay, and what else your capital could do.
Which businesses deserve further research?
Study business quality, financial resilience, valuation, and how management uses capital before considering a company for a portfolio.
What should change at the next review?
Revisit the original thesis, current valuation, position sizes, and competing opportunities to assess what to hold, add, trim, or replace.
These questions describe the intended research process, not a personalised recommendation.
WHY A LAB?
A research notebook,
made public.
The project begins with questions its creator would investigate anyway — in notes, spreadsheets, and company filings. The aim is to make that process structured, transparent, and useful to others: state the question, show the evidence, explain the assumptions, and revisit the conclusion when facts change.
It starts as a personal research environment for its creator’s own long-term decisions. Published materials will be free for others to use. There are no sales, paid subscriptions, or management of other people’s money.
In the tradition of fundamental value investing, the emphasis is on business quality, financial resilience, purchase price, and a margin of safety. Choosing to do nothing, or leaving a hypothesis unconfirmed, can be a sound research outcome.
02 / THE RESEARCH
What the Lab plans
to investigate
Company fundamentals
Business economics, financial history, balance sheets, management, and capital allocation. Begin with company filings and the decisions behind the reported numbers.
Business drivers
Metals, energy, agriculture, interest rates, currencies, and geographic exposure — connected to how a business earns revenue, incurs costs, and serves its customers.
Valuation and alternatives
Scenarios and valuation ranges that make uncertainty visible. Compare an equity investment with bonds, cash alternatives, and the option of waiting for a better opportunity.
Portfolio reviews
Changes to a thesis, position sizes, and shared economic exposures. Keep a dated decision journal so that later reviews can return to the original assumptions.
The intended scope includes stocks, bonds, and cash alternatives in the US, Europe, and Japan. Coverage will depend on source quality, availability, and data rights.
FOLLOW THE MECHANISM
Beyond the financial statements
A commodity price matters only when there is a credible link to a company’s revenue, costs, customers, or financing. The Lab aims to document those links, distinguish evidence from hypotheses, and test scenarios rather than assume that a price change guarantees a business outcome.
- Customer economics
- Equipment demand
- Company cash flows
- Valuation assumptions
Conceptual research framework — not a forecast.
FROM SOURCES TO UNDERSTANDING
One evidence base.
Two ways to research.
Dated datasets would let you investigate a situation as of your own chosen date, independently of the creator’s review schedule.
Research within the Lab
A guided research workflow using a dated set of sources, explicit assumptions, reproducible calculations, and model-assisted interpretation.
Each investigation should present its question, sources, method, results, and limitations so the reasoning can be checked.
Take the evidence to your own AI
Portable research packages with readable documents, structured tables, source references, dates, and known limitations — subject to data rights and availability.
Possible formats include Markdown, CSV, and JSON. Compatibility with every AI service is not promised.
Free access does not mean third-party datasets can be freely redistributed.
THE GUIDING PRINCIPLES
Fundamentals first.
No hype.
- Think in years
- Understand the business and its resilience through a full cycle.
- Show the evidence
- Link to sources and separate observed facts from assumptions.
- Make uncertainty visible
- Use scenarios, acknowledge limitations, and invite independent review.
- Keep access open
- Share published materials freely, without paid subscriptions.
03 / THE ROAD AHEAD
Built one layer at a time.
Available now
The introduction
Project introduction, methodology overview, and a link to the YouTube channel.
Planned foundation
The evidence base
Company research files and selected external datasets, with sources and limitations.
Planned workflows
The research process
Dated research packages and model-assisted analysis with explicit assumptions.
Planned portfolio tools
The review discipline
Comparisons, portfolio reviews, and decision journals that preserve the reasoning.
The roadmap describes intended directions, not a commitment to specific features or release dates.
CONTINUE EXPLORING